Indian Assembly Election Analysis
So, the so-called semi-final round of the 2014 Lok Sabha election finally ended yesterday. The results are out for all five state assembly elections. What do these results indicate? Following is my brief analysis.
First, the defeat of Congress party in Rajashthan and Delhi constituencies shows how frustrated voters were against the incumbent rulers in these states. The ruling UPA coalition, lead by the Congress party, is involved into myriad of political corruption scandals since last few years, which possibly have angered voters against its rule in these states. The sign of this anger was visible in Delhi election where anti-corruption crusader Arvind Kejriwal's AAP (Aam Aadmi Party) won total 28 seats in its debut itself. The rise of AAP is now posing a big political threat to both Congress and BJP. What was interesting in Delhi election is, that there was a three way fight between Congress, BJP and AAP, and most of the seats lost by Congress were won by AAP, and not by BJP. This is important because it hints at the fact that the hyped Modi Magic didn't really work. If Modi magic was working, then, BJP should've snatched all seats from Congress. Instead people voted for AAP, and neither for Congress nor for BJP. It seems, people have started realizing that both BJP and Congress are corrupt. Frustrated people were looking for an alternative, and, so far, they have found that alternative, at least in Delhi, in AAP. Another indirect evidence of failure of hyped Modi magic is seen in Chhattishgarh election where the ruling BJP government barely held onto power against Congress, which won more seats in this election than in last. And today Congress won Mizoram elections convincingly.
Looking at all these drama, it would've been interesting if AAP contested in Rajashthan, M.P., Chhattishgarh and all other state assembly elections too. The hyped Modi magic would've been truly tested in that case. But as I said above, these election results are, as usual, showing that people are more concerned about their local issues. Local factors mostly play a big role in India where the country is so diverse. The myth of one nation called India is perpetrated by the politicians themselves. People are busy with their own life instead of worrying for the false cause of Indian nation. If they don't get cheap onions in their locality, then, they are going to throw the rulers out like in Delhi.
And re AAP, the hope which people are having from these so-called common men is going to result into disillusionment and disappointment in the end because it is easy to promise to remove political corruption, but it is not that easy to actually do it! Arvind Kejriwal is already worrying about making mistakes; he is already fearing from the responsibility which people are putting on his shoulders. To remove political corruption, AAP will have to get into power and start dismantling one bureaucratic department after another. Kejriwal will have to start shrinking the government. Can he do that? I think not. His election manifesto said no such things. In fact, like BJP and Congress, AAP was also promising 'cheap electricity' and 'free water' to everyone! This policy is not at all different from BJP and Congress. Without a sound understanding of the laws of economics (and other natural laws), it is impossible to do good for this country. AAP is equally clueless about these laws. People voted for them because they were looking for some alternative. The thought that election and voting give true choice to people is an illusion. Hapless people are forced to vote. They don't have any other option of changing their ill fate; they can only vote after every few years to try and alter their bad condition. There will be a true choice when people will be allowed to peacefully secede from the Indian State. Election is just an excuse and ritual of democratic religion to keep people under the yoke of government rule.
In the end, in all these elections the final result is certain: Politicians (no matter from which party) will win, and people will lose, as usual!!!
First, the defeat of Congress party in Rajashthan and Delhi constituencies shows how frustrated voters were against the incumbent rulers in these states. The ruling UPA coalition, lead by the Congress party, is involved into myriad of political corruption scandals since last few years, which possibly have angered voters against its rule in these states. The sign of this anger was visible in Delhi election where anti-corruption crusader Arvind Kejriwal's AAP (Aam Aadmi Party) won total 28 seats in its debut itself. The rise of AAP is now posing a big political threat to both Congress and BJP. What was interesting in Delhi election is, that there was a three way fight between Congress, BJP and AAP, and most of the seats lost by Congress were won by AAP, and not by BJP. This is important because it hints at the fact that the hyped Modi Magic didn't really work. If Modi magic was working, then, BJP should've snatched all seats from Congress. Instead people voted for AAP, and neither for Congress nor for BJP. It seems, people have started realizing that both BJP and Congress are corrupt. Frustrated people were looking for an alternative, and, so far, they have found that alternative, at least in Delhi, in AAP. Another indirect evidence of failure of hyped Modi magic is seen in Chhattishgarh election where the ruling BJP government barely held onto power against Congress, which won more seats in this election than in last. And today Congress won Mizoram elections convincingly.
Looking at all these drama, it would've been interesting if AAP contested in Rajashthan, M.P., Chhattishgarh and all other state assembly elections too. The hyped Modi magic would've been truly tested in that case. But as I said above, these election results are, as usual, showing that people are more concerned about their local issues. Local factors mostly play a big role in India where the country is so diverse. The myth of one nation called India is perpetrated by the politicians themselves. People are busy with their own life instead of worrying for the false cause of Indian nation. If they don't get cheap onions in their locality, then, they are going to throw the rulers out like in Delhi.
And re AAP, the hope which people are having from these so-called common men is going to result into disillusionment and disappointment in the end because it is easy to promise to remove political corruption, but it is not that easy to actually do it! Arvind Kejriwal is already worrying about making mistakes; he is already fearing from the responsibility which people are putting on his shoulders. To remove political corruption, AAP will have to get into power and start dismantling one bureaucratic department after another. Kejriwal will have to start shrinking the government. Can he do that? I think not. His election manifesto said no such things. In fact, like BJP and Congress, AAP was also promising 'cheap electricity' and 'free water' to everyone! This policy is not at all different from BJP and Congress. Without a sound understanding of the laws of economics (and other natural laws), it is impossible to do good for this country. AAP is equally clueless about these laws. People voted for them because they were looking for some alternative. The thought that election and voting give true choice to people is an illusion. Hapless people are forced to vote. They don't have any other option of changing their ill fate; they can only vote after every few years to try and alter their bad condition. There will be a true choice when people will be allowed to peacefully secede from the Indian State. Election is just an excuse and ritual of democratic religion to keep people under the yoke of government rule.
In the end, in all these elections the final result is certain: Politicians (no matter from which party) will win, and people will lose, as usual!!!
Great analysis, can you guess, who will make government by Election 2014? i know NDA will make it, but how and with which alliance, can we have analysis on that too, please?
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