What is the fallout for India of Taliban's take over of Afghanistan?
Taliban has quickly taken over Afghanistan after an abrupt exit of USA and NATO forces from its lands. This was inevitable. In this short discussion I want to focus on the fallout of this surprising event for India.
First, it seems Modi government is again caught napping as they have very little diplomatic talks going on with the Taliban at the time of take over. India's Hindu fundamentalist government was getting cozy with US government in their bid to control China. Instead of becoming trading partner of China by joining OBOR etc., Indian government decided to stay out and be an enemy of China, and with it Russia, Iran and Turkey etc., also. Pakistan is an arch enemy already.
With Taliban's win now China, Russia, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran, Syria and Turkey are altogether in a continuous landmass trading area. China will start diplomatic talks with Taliban soon if they behave well. I am sure new Taliban leaders are smart enough to see potential gains they can have by being part of this trading block. If they decide to be violent then their fate is doomed again. American deep state will surely try to throw a wrench in these trading block, but with its military going woke they have little leverage.
By deciding to stay out of this trading block, India is a net loser here. Taliban will highly unlikely side with India because of its persecution of Muslims. Modi government banned Afghani muslims from becoming Indian citizen. Even if needed, such things are better done in clandestine fashion and not announced publicly like that. Such moves can please the local voters but not outsiders like the Taliban. Pakistan handles Taliban so now they are emboldened. Kashmiri insurgents will get a moral boost too and they will start to ramp up their attacks on Indian soldiers. I am sure many Indian muslims are feeling jubilious inside thier hearts too. I am sure Pakistan will now intensify the proxy war.
Still there is time for the Indian government to salvage the situation by joining this trading block. If Taliban behaves well then they can recognize them as a legitimate government as a gesture of friendship. America is a decaying power and it can't help India much. It is better to side with neighbours if siding is needed.
But I see Modi and RSS trapped by their own jingoism. If they try to act little less tough then they will lose votes because Indian public is now high on nationalism opium. Hindu vs Muslim rhetoric is going to be a problem for the Indian government itself.
In the end, as Lord Krishna said, Peace is the only solution of India's problems. With commerce will come peace and with peace will come prosperity and progress. If Indians decide to fight for theri Akhand Bharat then war will ruin them. If they decide to trade, like how they have done historically, then they will prosper. The ball is in their court now.
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